ArcVest applies quantitative models to sports market pricing. Every position is sized by formula, tracked publicly, and settled using best available market pricing. Track record live from April 23, 2026.
Three steps. No discretion. Every decision is traceable back to a number.
ArcVest's quantitative model fetches market pricing across multiple sources each morning and builds no-vig fair probabilities. It then overlays sport-specific predictive models — such as Pythagorean win expectations for all major sports, BaseRuns for MLB, Elo and surface adjustments for tennis — to produce model win probabilities independent of the market.
A position only qualifies if it clears both a minimum expected value threshold and a minimum model probability threshold. The market price alone is not enough — the model must independently agree. Positions that pass both gates appear on the Daily Card. The full market view, including positions below threshold, is always visible on the Odds page.
Qualified positions are sized by fractional Kelly, capped by a daily portfolio exposure limit, and sealed every morning. The sealed record is immutable — it cannot be edited after the fact. Settlement runs each morning against final scores, and the result is appended to the public track record. No cherry-picking. No backtesting theater.
Outcomes are noisy. Any system can win over a small sample by luck. Closing line value — whether our entries beat the price the market eventually settled at — is the metric that is hardest to fake.
When ArcVest enters a position before the market fully reprices the information, that entry ages well. The closing price moves toward our number. That gap is Price Capture Alpha — skill extracted from the execution process, independent of whether the outcome wins or loses.
VIEW FULL DECOMPOSITION ON SCORECARDAttribution fields require reservoir accumulation. Values populate as CLV capture history grows. Read the methodology →
Every piece of evidence is accessible to the public. No selective disclosure.
Every qualified position is sealed. Event, start time, and edge are public. Full execution detail — position, Kelly allocation, and model context — is available to account holders.
TODAY'S POSITIONSCumulative model performance including Win rate, ROI, equity curve, and the skill/luck decomposition separating process edge from outcome noise.
FULL RECORDEvery settled position since April 23, 2026, in order. Position, price at seal, result, and P&L. Append-only — no position is ever removed or altered after settlement.
FULL HISTORYGet the Daily Card — every qualified position, Kelly allocation, and supporting model context — delivered each morning during beta.
ArcVest is for informational purposes only. Not betting advice. Privacy Policy